April 2, 2025
AI & The Fed: Is Hiring Changing?
As economic conditions shift, financial institutions must adapt their lending strategies to balance growth, risk, and liquidity. A "Slow and Grow " approach is emerging as a sustainable way to navigate today’s market while expanding financial services.
This week, host Lynn Sautter Beal welcomes Joseph Mayans, Chief Economist at Experian North America, to discuss the key economic drivers impacting lending in 2025 live at the CBA conference. They dive into the current state of the economy, including inflation, policy uncertainties and the evolving global landscape. Plus, they explore new lending opportunities in the auto and small business sectors and offeractionable insights on how lenders can remain adaptable to thrive in the coming years.
Join us as we discuss:
- How inflation and policy changes will impact lending strategies
- The future of auto and small business lending opportunities
- Navigating economic uncertainty while balancing growth and risk
- Expert strategies to stay adaptable in a rapidly shifting market
WEBVTT
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Hi everyone, and welcome to Leaders in Lending. I am
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Lynn Saarbiel, and I'm joining you today from CBA Live
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with Joseph Mainz from Experience. Joseph, do you want to
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talk a little bit about your background and your role
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as chief Economists Experience.
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Yeah, thank you, Lynn, and thank you for having me back.
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So yeah, I'm the chief Economists i Experience North America.
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So just roughly what I do. I spend probably about
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seventy percent of my time doing external work with our
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clients and our partners. Give a lot of presentation speak
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with probably one hundred and twenty organizations a year, all
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across is kind of the financial system ecosystem, from the
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largest banks to fintech's credit unions. I also spend the
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rest of my time I report up to the North
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America Strategy Team, and so I also do a lot
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of work working internally with our strategic finance, our finance team,
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strategy team, thinking about kind of those major pivots in
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the economy that may be material for our business as well.
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Well.
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Great, well, I know we did this conversation last year,
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so it's great to have you have you back on
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the podcast. I think you know heading into into your end,
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felt that the economy was maybe a little more resilient
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than expected and that you know, term recession concerns were
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starting to ease. But now I think we're we're certainly
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seeing some more uncertainty increase, and especially with different things
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going on in the world. So what indicators are you
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watching that could signal shifts as we kind of move
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into twenty twenty five.
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Yeah, so I think there's a couple of things.
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So you're absolutely right when we you know, coming out
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of twenty twenty four, the economy really had had solid momentum.
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You know, overall economic activity was doing really well, labor
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market pretty solid, spending pretty solid. But you know, there
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were some trends and I can talk about them in
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a little bit, there were some trends that gave some
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kind of a heads up that we may be entering
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a little bit of a slower period. And then on
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top of that, then we got hit with all Now
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we have a lot of obviously policy uncertainty coming out
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of DC. Some of that exactly, you know, kind of
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further perpetuate some of the slowing trends that we did see.
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But overall, you're right, solid momentum.
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So what I'm really looking at right now, you know,
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I think there's a couple of ways to think about it.
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So top of mind for me at the moment is
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everything that's going on with trade in tariff policy, and
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so really I think about it as you know, kind
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of affecting two different channels. When you have the kind
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of the inflationary aspect, the impact that it's going to
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have on the FED, I think, you know, we can
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hit on that too, But definitely I think higher tariffs
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are likely to lead to higher prices. One of the
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questions is how long and how persistent you know that
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those price changes may be. But either way, it's probably
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going to cause the FED to be more cautious in
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the short run. But what I'm honestly a little more
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concerned at the moment is kind of the uncertainty that
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this is driving in the broader economy, especially for things
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like business investment and consumer spending. So that's actually a
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segment that I'm a little more concerned about at the
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moment than even the inflationary impacts.
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Yeah, you do you think, you know, going into kind
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of what we're seeing, this persistent inflation and higher for
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longer rates. Do you think the FED has really the
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right tools to kind of balance the growth and stability, Like,
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do they have enough kind of dry powder do influence
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according to their mandate?
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So the FED is stuck.
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They're stuck in a little bit between a rock and
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a hard place at the moment, just because you know,
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and inflation was already proving to be more stubborn than
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they would like to see even coming into the end
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of twenty twenty four, and now you look at the tariffs. Definitely,
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if it doesn't drive inflation, highers at least going to
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keep inflation where it is, which is above the Fed's target.
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I think for longer. I think the FED does have tools.
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Obviously, they have room in the federal funds rate to
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drop it phiry substantially if they if they need to.
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But it's definitely going to be a challenge, and I
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do think that this year they may have to make
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that choice if push comes to shove, what are you
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going to support You're going to try to make sure
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you keep inflation inder control, or you're going to try
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to support the labor market. My personal view is that
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they they'll support the labor market.
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So interesting, Yeah, I think that, you know, the certainly
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policy uncertainty and political changes are having a big impact.
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And I'm a big Twitter fan and write a fan
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as well, and I think everyone's an expert on tariffs
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right now after being experts and other things earlier this year.
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So you know, as you think about building forecasts for
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twenty twenty five, with so much uncertainty happening, and particularly
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like regulatory uncertainty and policy uncertainty, how do you think
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about factoring that into your forecasts of what you are
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projecting in it experience?
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Yeah, so you know, it is very difficult at the
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moment when you look at kind of of the I
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don't think you can just pick out one policy aspect
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at a time when it's just tariffs or immigration or
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spending cuts or you know, tax cuts or deregulation.
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It's really the package deal. But how I am thinking
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about it is you have the short run impacts. So
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you know, we have tariffs, we're.
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Having, you know, shifts in immigration policy, You're having you know,
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federal government layoffs, you have some some spending cutbacks, and
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so I think I think about really in the short
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term those things are very those things way heavy in
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the next six to twelve months, and then I think
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the tax cuts and the the deregulation, those impacts will
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probably come later. So really, when I'm looking at the forecast,
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I'm looking at that tariffs, you know, job cuts, those
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things in the short run, and I think if you
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look at the short run, it's it's clear that it's
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likely going to weigh on growth, likely going to weigh
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on the labor markets.
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And I do think that that's.
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One reason why you know, the market in general, if
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you you know, if you go back to December, the
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FED was projecting two rate cuts this year. I actually
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think that's a pretty good baseline. I know, recently there's
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been kind of a split, you know, some economists saying, oh, look,
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we got it. The Fed's gonna be very focused on
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the inflationary picture because the tariff's going to keep them.
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Cautious for longer.
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We may get one cut, we may get no cuts.
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On the other side of the thing, you look at,
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you know, market pricing of rate cuts this year.
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Now they're up to maybe like three cuts.
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My general view at the moment is if we look
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at that, we think about kind of the near term risks.
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You know, if I were to take a bet whether
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the Fed's going to cut more than twice or less
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than twice. I think they may cut more than twice
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this year, and we can talk about maybe in a
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little bit, but some of the with the weaknesses and
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I think in the labor market that may may be
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showing up more readily for them.
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Yeah, that's definitely. It's going to be an interesting, interesting time.
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And you know, every time I guess is unprecedented. But
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you know, I think the one thing we've seen though
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is consumer spending has remained pretty strong, and even though
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we've seen some dips and consumer confidence, you see spending
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is and reflecting that, Like what do you what do
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you think is driving that? And do you think with
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some of the changes to federal employees, cuts to federal agencies,
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do you think that that's going to then trickle down
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into really how consumers are spending their dollars.
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Yeah, so I think there's a there's a couple of
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things there when I think about the strength of the consumer.
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So I've been generally and when I joined you last time,
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I've been more optimistic over the past couple of years
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than most economists, and that's just because I had you know,
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conviction that the consumer was both able and willing to
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continue to spend. But some of those dynamics that that
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drove me to that conviction have really been kind of
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fading over the past year.
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So one of one of the.
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Biggest drivers, you know, twenty twenty three, early twenty twenty four,
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really strong personal income growth when adjusted for inflation, rising
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at a solid pace. That is really that was really
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sort of spending. What you've really seen over especially the
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back half of twenty twenty four is a softening an
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overall income growth.
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So it's now.
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Running below the average that you saw prior to the pandemic,
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which now gives me some pause that you know how,
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I do think consumers will spend this year, but I
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don't think they'll have the quite as much ability to
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do so.
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But what you did see, though.
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In spite of even having incomes kind of fade a
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little bit into the back of the year, you did
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see spending growth remain very robust, honestly, And I think,
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what so this is kind of the second piece. One
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is that again, like I said, the income I think
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is softening a little more concerned about that. But the
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other piece is you have to think why was it
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that consumers were willing to, even in the face of
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their income growth softening a bit, they kept up spending growth. Actually,
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spending growth really was very solid through twenty twenty four,
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and spending growth.
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Was rising faster than income growth. You can't have that
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happen forever. But the question is why that happen.
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My view, it has very much to do with the
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you know, the net worth impact we've seen over the
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past couple of years. You know, your your home value
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goes up forty percent, your form K goes up forty percent,
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you feel more comfortable spending a.
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Larger portion of your income every month.
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But what we've seen recently, and I think especially since
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the you know, whether you want to call this a
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new trade war and extension of the prior trade war,
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but either way, all this uncertainty, you've definitely seen more
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of an impact. I think the sp five hundred entered
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a correction, and I think you're you're seeing more people
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probably cognizant now, well, maybe those things that have supported
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my spending of the past two years, maybe they're not
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doing so well. Maybe I may be cut back a
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little more now.
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Yeah, I think that's probably a good a good point
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that if you if you think you're going to make
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more next year, and if you keep seeing your investment
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balances go up, you may feel a little more confident,
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like yes I'll book that trip, Yes I'll buy that thing,
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Yes I'll start this home improvement project. So you know,
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as you think about then how that relates to lending,
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the credit environment, credit markets. I think we may have
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talked last year a little bit about real estate, and
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you know, rates had been super low for so long,
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and so this idea that people weren't going to, you know, move,
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you're not going to sell and walk away from a
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three percent or two percent mortgage, and that people were
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going to do more home improvements. And so now that
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rates have increased rather substantially and seemed to be pretty
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sticky both on the on the mortgage side, where do
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you see the opportunities maybe for lending or the credit markets,
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or what may be the kind of products or asset
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classes that are coming into favor in the current environment.
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Yeah, I think it's kind of interesting because, like we
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mentioned earlier, like the economy really came into twenty twenty
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five in a good place, and I think you can
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generally say that as well when looking at the credit environment.
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So you know you had seen really over the past
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since you know, late twenty twenty two, lending standards has
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tightened very substantially. Interest rates were high, but coming into
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the back end of twenty twenty four, you know, lending
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sentans were generally, at least for banks and the broader
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market were still tighting, but not tightly nearly.
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At the pace.
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And you did see some You did see some loosening,
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you know, large banks loosening, and autos you sell some
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loosening helocks. And I think what you can see like
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the pickup in lending and FinTechs. You know, we don't
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have an exact measure of linding standard tightness for FinTechs
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like we do with banks when the Senior Loan Off
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Survey comes out, but fintech's generally tightened lending standards earlier.
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I think maybe got a head of some of their
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