Oct. 1, 2025
The Credit Crunch and Beyond: Bold Predictions for 2026
2025 has been all about the crunch. Credit is tight, uncertainty is everywhere and lenders are asking: is this the new normal or just another cycle? In this episode, we unpack what’s driving the squeeze, from regulation and rates to global risk, and how smart institutions are staying ahead.
We also look forward. 2026 will not be business as usual. AI, new lending models and shifting borrower behavior could reshape the landscape. Hear how leaders are finding opportunity in a market defined by uncertainty.
00:00 Anticipating a Fed Rate Cut
03:48 Embracing a New Financial Normal
08:48 Model Accuracy Relies on Recent Data
12:14 Advocating for Participation Loans
14:39 Credit Union Credit Builder Insights
19:16 Economic Uncertainty and Market Resilience
20:04 "Seizing High Yield Opportunities"
WEBVTT
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I wish we had three percent thirty year mortgages again.
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We may never see those again, Like this is a
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new Normally, this type.
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Of environment could also last for an extended period. And
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this is what it looks like for five eight years.
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I almost don't see that changing all that much in
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twenty six, and then we're going to get into twenty seven,
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and there's gonna be election in twenty eight and who knows,
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right will.
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AI take jobs? It will take some, but it will
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create others. How does that impact the economy?
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All right, welcome to another episode of leaders in Lending. Today,
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we're going to talk about the twenty twenty five credit crunch.
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As we all know, most institutions are tightening credit, probably
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not for the best, but it's been something that's been
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ongoing now for the remitt for the entire year. Barry
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would love to get your perspective on kind of what's
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what's driving the titan credit in twenty twenty five.
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Overall, I think just uncertainty. Right since we've had a
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new administration come in in January, there were threats of
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reductions in government workforce, which some have come to pass
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and some haven't. The regulatory environment has sort of been
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turned a little bit upside down. The CFPB doesn't seem
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to have as much maybe forward influence as an expectation
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than maybe what they had in the past. But then,
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just in the economy, we've been waiting for a recession
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hasn't come, been waiting for rates to reduce, hasn't come,
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been waiting for unemployment to climb, hasn't necessarily I mean,
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it's come up a little bit, but the labor market
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is still really strong. So all the sort of fundamental
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economic conditions that would normally predate a credit crunch haven't
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necessarily come to pass. So it's been more about our
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expectation or worry that's coming. And that's actually a prudent
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approach in the face of uncertainty. May not necessarily be
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the time to take on a whole lot of risk,
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Although I'll argue with myself a little bit on this.
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The counterpoint is, if everyone else is pulling back, isn't
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that a really good time for you to pull forward
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in a in an aggressive but in somewhat measured fashion.
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When I say measured meaning more about the quality of risk.
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You know, maybe that's something that that where some credit
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unions and banks could win on.
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Sure, and I definitely think you know, geopolitical uncertainty as well.
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I mean you touched on the regulatory and the economic uncertainty,
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but you know, we continue to see turmoil in different
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areas of the world, and you know, particularly in the
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Middle East. And then you know tariffs on off do
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we have tariff do we not? On what products?
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Uh?
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And those rollbacks and the impact of that just continues
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to We've got uncertainty almost in every area of things
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that normally would be kind of part of the fundamentals
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of driving those decisions.
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Everyone's been waiting for a rate cut, right stock market up,
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labor market's still pretty good. Inflation is running around three
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percent right now. I know the Fed has won it
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at two for a while, but we haven't been there
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for a long time. Like, there's a lot of conditions
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that traditionally wouldn't call for a rate cut. And I
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think as as consumers, we all want to see a
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rate cut. Even in our business, certainly a rate cut
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would help to create maybe more in demand. And I
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think as a as someone who manages the balance sheet,
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if you're a CFO today, you're thinking about, Okay, can
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I put more of the higher rate business on my
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books now in the face of perhaps seeing the lower
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rates going forward, you know, maybe that's that's suprett approach to.
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Take everything's not ebbing and flowing like it should, right,
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So you think about there's many different reasons to tighten credit.
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You talked about geopolitical, We're talking you know, there's delinquencies
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that are rising. Do you think there's one honed in
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area that is driving the crunch or is it just
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a holistic view of all of them.
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Do you think about the you know, financial crisis in
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LA the GFC. Everything felt unprecedented right after, and it
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was this idea, you know, of the new normal, like
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the world has changed, and I think we're there's a
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lot of conversations like this where people are saying, how
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are we going to get back to that? Like how
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are we going to get to less uncertainty into more
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stability and to being able to see those you know,
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leading and trailing indicators and use them to make decisions.
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And it could be that we don't. And it could
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be that this is similar to how zero interest rates
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we thought that was a short term thing and it
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lasted for an extended period. This type of environment could
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also last for an extended period, and maybe this is
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what it looks like for five eight years, and there's
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not going to be a sudden return to the same
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fundamentals of what we thought were fundamentals before. There are
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now new fundamentals.
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Right, this is a new normal basically, right. Yeah, there's
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not been an event like COVID and the pandemic that
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sort of caused that really brief recession we add in
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twenty twenty. There's not been an event like the mortgage
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backed securities and the housie market kind of floating back
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in two thousand and eight. I laughed, because of the
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conditions at the time, it was very apparent to while
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you know, we were all in the business at that time,
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and you know, certainly in California we could see if
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as as a money mooning quarterback looking back at everything
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that was happening around the housing markets, like, yeah, of
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course this was unsustainable, right, But there's nothing like that
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happening right now.
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There's no one thing to see.
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And so to your point, this is somewhat of the
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new normal. You know, I hear from people saying, oh boy,
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I wish we had three percent thirty year mortgages again.
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We may never see those again, Like this is the
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new normal. If you're paying six or seven percent for
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thirty year mortgage, that's probably all as good as you're
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going to get.
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It's not like early eighties numbers. I mean, we're not
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you know, we could be paying fifteen percent seventeen.
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It's more like the nineties. You know, when I bought
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my first house, I think, you know, at my rate
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was somewhere around in the eighth and I was happy
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with it and that was just just the way it was.
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So do you think the ongoing uncertainty though, Like you
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think about talk to lending professionals on a daily basis,
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and they've been telling us that inflation is going to arise,
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We're tightening credit. They've been saying it now for almost
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three years, and we haven't really got to that that
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it factor similar to what the GFC was. Do you
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think that that's going to be the new Norman because
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there's so much tightening, it's just going to keep translating
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as is. Or do you think if we see a
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surge of untightened that things would pop or what are
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your thoughts there?
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I mean, you just sort of introduced maybe a concept
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of this arbitrary tightening across the industry, maybe that is
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somewhat governing things today, that that's why we're not seeing
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abundant losses. And I'll go back again to the PREGFC
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with housing, where it was stated income applications and no
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down payments and things like this, like all those sort
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of risky conditions somewhat cavalier underwrite standards that went into
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that that anyone can get a mortgage right And perhaps
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now to your point, drew that by lenders tightening more
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and more, that there's just less of a less of
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a risk out there of this becoming something that would
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be beyond the risk of what might other rest be expected.
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Well, there's such a reaction too, I mean, there was
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such a I guess penalization, and I mean people could
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people have different opinions of whether there was enough penalization
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of the financial industry after or you know, and how
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much the ownership the consumer versus the institutions had. But
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like there was there were certainly a lot of repercussions
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and consequences, and like DoD frank and and a lot
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of other regulation Federal Reserve, Triprairie repro reform came out
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of came out of the GFC, and so it is
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possible that a lot of those things are actually working
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well and better than maybe we think, because maybe we're
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all kind of waiting for that other shoot to drop
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and maybe it's.
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It's not Maybe there isn't another stree, it will.
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Not drop right, or maybe it'll drop in a different
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way next time that hasn't happened before.
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So then maybe we put our foot on the gas again,
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not all the way to the floor, right, but take
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it a little bit less off the brake, a little
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more on the gas than maybe that would be That
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would be a.
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Good approach right now, Yeah, I know we've talked a
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lot about this and prior podcast of leveraging the use
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of AI models to predict risk more effectively. Right, so
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you think about you wanted to take your foot off
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the brake and press the gas a little bit again,
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And going back to a prior podcast, we're giving more
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of a description of how to have the knowledge base
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to explain having these types of partnerships. But in actuality,
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about seventy percent of financial institutions do use some form
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of AI driven modeling for decisioning credit right, So how
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do you think financial institutions are adapting those models to
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have less risk or even to open things up and
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be more predictive and bringing in the types of borrowers
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that doesn't add the risk there.
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So models are only good as good as a data
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that's that's in them. And so what sort of data
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is being used to train those models? Is lending data
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from the past, call it ten years, twelve years? Now,
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what's been happening in the last ten to twelve years?
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Who went from zero from ZERP into you know, a
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little recession around COVID and you could almost sort of
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throw out that little eighteen month period because it just
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was unprecedented in terms of what happened with deposits and
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then you know it's kind of dropping again. So these
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models are trained on that data over that time period,
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which if we are in a new normal, then wouldn't
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that mean that the data that's in those models is
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actually going to be maybe a better predictive value than
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maybe data that was happening before the GFC for example.
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Sure that, yeah, like you need to need to actually
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look at them more like have a little bit more
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recency bias, like intentionally in how you're thinking about training
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a model, because I think there's a lot of times,
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you know, like COVID's a great example that people looked
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back at that and said, oh, well that was an
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unusual environment. Well maybe it was, but it also happened
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in real life. So things that are unusual environments actually occurred.
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So you can't skip it right in your model.
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Can't just toss that data.
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Yeah, Like you have to understand that there were you know,
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there were liquidity injections from the federal government and deposit
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increases and also with a zero interest rate. So it
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was unusual, but it wasn't but it actually occurred, And
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so like, how do you incorporate that in thinking about
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what could happen next and how to plan for it.
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I think most often, too, like we've seen it over
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the past few years, the resiliency of the American consumers
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is there. They figure it out whether a piece of
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paper tells us inflation has increased x percent, like, things
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have stayed fairly stable, at least to my knowledge base,
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to be able to be able to open up the
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risk the risk door a little bit more so thinking
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about you know, most institutions in some face that are
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leveraging an AI driven model for predictive risk. Is there
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a way that credit unions can expand their approval without
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adding additional risk outside of leverage the use of models.
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So outside of using models, like, how else can they
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kind of expand their approval? I mean, I certainly think
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you know, a key theme automation and it doesn't have
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to be predictive AI. Right, Like we talk a lot
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about underwriting, which is more of a predictive AI, but
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you know, thinking about using generative AI agent AI chat
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agents to improve their customer member experience, improve the digital process.
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I think a lot of those things can also drive
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improval because they reduce friction in the flow, They increase
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the chance of that new member being you know, satisfied
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and getting the product that they need. And that's not
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taking on any additional risk. It's actually reducing operational risk
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while increasing the likelihood of approvals.
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All right, So going back to the whole theme of
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different levers, So we talked about non model type of
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approvals leveraging models, which seems to be the kind of
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the new norm. Credit unions have their fingertips at a
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bulk of different ways of leveraging risk through participations through
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whole lowned purchases, through many different areas. So what are
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the smartest levers you think current state that credit unions
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