Under Inflationary Pressure: Reshaping Strategy

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You are listening to Leaders in lending
from Upstart, a podcast dedicated to helping

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consumer lenders grow their programs and improve
their product offerings. Each week, here,

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decision makers in the finance industry offer
insights into the future of the lending

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industry, best practices around digital transformation, and more. Let's get into the

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show. Hi, We're here live
from CBA and Washington, DC, and

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I have Matt Herna here to join
us on the podcast and talk about the

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inflationary pressures and market volatility that are
impacting banks today. Thanks for joining us

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on the podcast today, Matt,
sure thing, I'm glad to be here.

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Thanks for having me great. Well, could you introduce yourself a little

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bit, talk about your background and
kind of what you're doing and in the

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banking industry right now. Sure?
Absolutely so. I'm with Regent's Bank,

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have been there about eleven years.
I have a team that sits within the

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consumer Product team. Within the first
line. We collaborate with the consumer bank

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on product design, launch, any
of the credit risk related items. We

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work with our second line partners on
things like refining credit policy, understanding impacts

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that may come from capital changes,
and things like that, as well as

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understanding when we watch a new product, loss expectations, pricing and things like

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that. Great, great, Well, I know you presented on a panel

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yesterday talking about similar topics, and
we'd love to hear let our listeners kind

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of hear some of your thoughts that
you shared with it with the group here

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at the conference. So, just
as you think about kind of inflationary market

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pressures, market volatility impacting our banks
today, what are some of the key

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challenges facing lenders, but especially in
the banking industry. So I'll touch on

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three things. One of the most
obvious ones is that with the rates of

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the level, loan demand has continued
to be dampened. There really isn't interesting.

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It was an interesting phenomenon though in
twenty twenty two. It's really the

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first year where we began to see
home equity production increase. Now rates have

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continued to accelerate since that point,
so we've seen that slow quite a bit

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as well. But I think that's
an interesting point that kind of proves out

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the concept that when customers have their
first mortgage locked in at such low rates,

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they really just need to see record
equity levels, which we've seen today.

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And then a slight margin above mortgage
rates to choose equity. So that's

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really one interesting thing, although it's
since declined again. Credit Card is another

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area that's interesting, though transactors aren't
as rate sensitive, so we continue to

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see robust card demand. Aside from
that, loan demand remains pretty dampened across

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the board. Really related to that
as we think about funding costs capital deployment,

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so as rates continue to increase,
that means that the marginal cost of

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funding those lines is also increased,
So we have to remain prudent about where

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we're deploying that capital and making sure
that it's profitable, that it's sound in

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this economic environment with a lot of
uncertainty. And then since my background is

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credit, I have to throw in
as well the credit impact. You can

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look out in the industry and see
we know a lot of stimulus from government

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and that other areas hit a lot
of consumers in twenty twenty, and we've

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been waiting on a lot of this
stimulus to normalize. We're now at a

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point where we're seeing subprime performance to
curate pretty rapidly. Luckily we don't play

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in that space, but you can
certainly see those excess liquidity levels normalizing in

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the impact credit fufilio, So that's
really a key emerging risk everyone should keep

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their eye. Yeah, I think
we've seen that and it's been, you

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know, kind of interesting that the
stimulus seemed relatively modest but was really impactful

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to a group of people in the
country. I think the interest of helock

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versus first mortgages, you know,
with how rates have changed over the past

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few years, what are your thoughts
with what are people doing with the helock

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money? Like, are they improving
their home because they don't want to move

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because they'd be moving and taking out
a mortgage at a higher rate. Are

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they using it to consolidate debt?
Like do you have any insights in that?

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And what is kind of driving that
that helock increase that you saw.

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Yeah, I think that's a great
question. It's something I think the industry

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has been asking as a whole.
What is the primary use of the helock

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and how do we get better customer
engagement to drive growth Because we have a

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recipe for growth, we have re
equity levels, we know it's available.

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To your point, home improvement would
be an ideal area, but in general,

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we know customers are using it for
all of those we know that is

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in this right environment, customers walked
into their home, they don't want to

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give up their low interest rate,
and that provides an excellent vehicle for them

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to fund things like home improvement.
We know a lot of customers use it

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as a potential Randy Day fund as
well, so they're just holding it out

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there to have that access to liquidity
as they need it and have pretty low

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utilization. And then also to your
point, debt consolidation, so running up

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the credit cards and then want to
pay them off and which we've certainly seen

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before and sometimes ends well and sometimes
doesn't so well. Helocks can have features

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too, like locking it into a
termline, which can provide for unique features

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for debt consolidation. Sure. Sure, So you know with all the kind

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of ongoing economic and certainty and banks
and people kind of in your role and

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related roles have to make decisions about
strategies and product going forward, Like how

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do you see the current and economic
uncertainty of what not really knowing what's next

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impacting how decision makers banks are planning
what twenty twenty four and beyond looks like,

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yeah, certainly an interesting question.
Well, the first thing is to

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all the banks have risk frameworks in
place for this exact reason, so we

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can think about our appetite overall,
how we can deploy the frameworks, what

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kind of emerging risks we're monitoring to
ensure that we're capturing those risks, We're

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factoring that into decisions like capital deployment
is in asking questions like, given this

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uncertainty, is now the right time
to lean into certain possibly let's say non

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core products, Probably not, and
focusing more on primacy and relationship. Okay,

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so kind of retaining the existing customers
and expanding that chair of wallet and

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that relationship with those customers versus maybe
a net new unknown customers that're out there.

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That's right. I think we're in
an environment where expanding prospecting, especially

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in let's say ID secured loan space, the personal line space, it's probably

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going to be a more volatile time
for that. If you're already talking about

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optimizing capital and higher funding costs,
I think that just leads you back to

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the core of privacy, relationship deepening, and focusing on those core products in

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the profitable way. I'm going to
kind of throw in a new new question

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here that came up as I was
thinking about it, what do you see

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with the There's been a lot of
talk as certainly with you know, kind

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of an aftereffective stimulus and the student
loan moratorium, repayment moratorium and of course

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the student loans of entered repayment now, but there's really no consequences for people

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who don't pay because they're still protected
by being reported delinquent and additional collection activities,

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I think, and through later this
year. Is that something that's kind

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of on your mind or you you
know, how would you kind of advise

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banks to think about that who do
play in the consumer space, even with

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helox or things that could be impacted
by someone suddenly having a large monthly payment

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come due that they may not be
making now, which we know a lot

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of people are not. Yeah,
that's the big unknown right now. Because

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we were sitting before October when the
repayment began, thinking through what those impacts

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might be. I would say I
thought it would be a much bigger impact

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than we've seen. So that could
be to your point that there's a one

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year on ramp period, but it's
just something we'll have to monitor closely.

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I think given the demographics of that
population, you would certainly expect to see

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some uptick in unsecured loan demand,
possibly some different credit card behavior. I

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would suggest monitoring any unsecured lines of
credit to see what where are those customers

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that have student loans, whether they
have them through you, through the government,

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or wherever, and then monitor their
performance to see what the impacts are,

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and also looking at their deposit levels
to see how stress they are.

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But as of right now, we've
seen pretty minimal impaths and I know,

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certainly something we talk a lot about
well, both at our company and with

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partners, and I think we've all
seen a lot less impact to it then

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maybe anticipated, and maybe that's good
and maybe we just will wait it out

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a little. So, you know, what do you see as some you

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know, tactics that banks can use
as they think about navigating the current market,

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Like what are some of the tools
in the toolkit to deal with inflation,

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market volatility, deposit levels? Being
well right now? Well, I

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think the first thing is to make
sure you have a recession playbook. So

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this is hopefully an exercise you don't
have to deploy, but at least making

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sure you have all the players thinking
through and talking through those possible scenarios and

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documenting what is possible or for deployment
your toolkit, and so that would involve

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talking through balance sheet pressures, credit
pressures, When is the right time to

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deploy certain account management features one is
the right time to pull out of certain

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areas or lean in potentially. So
I think that's the first thing, having

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those conversations firm wide, getting the
right risk players in so that whenever the

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next next thing does move, we
have that on the shelf. All those

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conversations have occurred, we've had the
right committity, approvals and governance, and

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they can be deployed as opposed to
scrambling. Sure sure, so kind of

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stress testing like where are risks?
What do we see is scenarios that could

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happen and making sure that you know
what to do in various scenarios so you

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can trigger it versus figuring it out
when you're already in that stress scenario.

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Yeah, that's right, And I
think a good example of that would be

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just picking on one would be when
would you deploy something like a credit limit

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decrease or the reverse of that,
When would you be comfortable changing your strategy

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around credit limit increase? Sure,
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and now back to the show. So,

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you know, I think we there's
certainly kind of the risk side of

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thinking about like how to worry about
in different areas and different impacts of market

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volatility or inflation stressing consumers or even
even companies that are that are buying consumer

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goods or things for their their company. But I think there's certainly an opportunity

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for banks to think about kind of
adapting and evolving. So what is next,

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Like not just a defensive but opportunistic
what can they do? How important

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do you think it is for banks
to be I think if you had to

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kind of compare contrasts, like being
defensive and protecting what they do today or

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really kind of adapting and evolving new
long term strategies to plan for what's next,

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I think banks should be doing both. So obviously, adapting for this

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economic environment, you want to be
defensive and protect the core focus on primacy,

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you know, protect the balance,
et cetera. But to your point,

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consumers are demanding new ways to interact
with the bank, and so we

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have to be doing both. We
have to think about convenience for the customer.

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We know online and digital is a
pretty big component to that. The

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branch network is still vital turks success, but we know that customers want that

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digital experience. And I think the
other thing I've hit on a couple of

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times now is what doesn't change the
customer focus focus on primacy no matter how

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you interact with customers. I think
that's key as well. Yeah, it's

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really been interesting. I think seeing
there's you know, it seems like the

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smaller, kind of more community banks
have kept maybe kept their branch footprint.

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Some of the middle ones, middle
sized banks regionals have reduced their branch footprint.

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And then when you see the largest
banks actually increasing that branch footprint,

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which I think is super interesting to
watch as the move to digital move to

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digital, but the branches still still
hold a place, and I think it's

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that in deepening that customer relationship and
providing that place for people to get advice

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because they do sometimes need in person
advisor, need ways to transact. So

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what do you think you know when
you think about adapting and kind of growing

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for the future, maybe adding new
asset classes or adding new features for consumers,

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or internally, what role do you
see the really technology providers fintech partnerships

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playing and really helping banks both mitigate
risk but then also going to capitalize on

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new opportunities in the market. I
think there's really two roles that they play.

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The first is probably the most obvious, thinking about capabilities that banks don't

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currently have or that may cost too
much, may not have the economies of

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scale to deploy. So when you
think about online origination channels, enhancing the

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application process and making it more efficient
for the customer experience. So there's a

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lot of FinTechs out there that banks
can partner with today to help alleviate some

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of the pain points in that process. So that's one. The other,

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as we begin to think through,
would be you mentioned different asset classes,

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So are there certain asset classes that
banks haven't traditionally played in that they would

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like some experience and they would like
to ensure that they have those guardrails up

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with someone who's more experienced. So
we think it regions as an example.

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A couple of years ago, we
partnered with so Far and also with GreenSky

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to play into some new asset classes
to understand what that credit performance was like.

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Sure, yeah, and it's definitely
I think a challenge, particularly for

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a bank that may not have a
new asset class like that's a big risk

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to take career wise, even for
the people who are kind of promoting that

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and being the champion internally. And
I think getting it through the kind of

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new business initiatives committee or whatever that
that process looks, particularly the larger banks

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can be can be daunting. Do
you have any I guess kind of words

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of wisdom, wores of caution for
a bank that may be entering a new

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asset class or considering it, Like, what are some of the things to

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look out for some of the maybe
pitfalls you've seen banks make in choosing those

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partnerships. I think one of the
first first, that's a really good point.

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I think back to comparing the business
models, so in most cases you'd

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need to check to make sure that
that aligns with your own business strategy,

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comparing how different their credit policy might
be from yours. I'll give you a

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really good example of that. One
of the areas where we learned quite a

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bit was in our so fire relationship. So far is well known to use

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a lot of machine learning, and
at the time that was an area that

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was relatively new for us, and
so that's something we had to get comfortable

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with to understand the impacts and bring
through their appropriate governance channels. Yeah,

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and I definitely think that being visibility
understanding of maybe model construction, model risk

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management, it can and it can
be a challenge because the transparency of what

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you have access to with different partners
may be different. But I did like

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what you said about, you know, thinking about maybe complimentary things that if

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the bank doesn't have that core competency
internally, how do you partner to bring

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it in versus versus hiring to bring
it in, which can happen but can

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be very expensive. So I think
that you know. The last question I

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had for you today is a little
bit off topic, but kind of a

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hot take question. So I noticed
that you worked in politics before you became

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a banker, So, uh,
which one is more volatile as a space

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to be in banking or the political
arena? Definitely the political arena. Yeah,

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yeah, do you uh? Do
do you uh? Did you enjoy

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working in politics or or was it
a short term thing that then you became

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a banker after and didn't look back. So that was right after college.

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I've always been interested in data and
analytics, and I found a niche that

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I could work in there to help
support some of the legislative items and and

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really do a research and analytics role. But I don't think most people would

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be surprised. Politics is relatively toxic
environment. So there's a reason I'm a

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banker now. I haven't really looked
back. Yeah, great, well,

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good well, thank you, thank
you for joining us today. It's definitely

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been interesting to hear your take on
the market. And I think there's no

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shortage of interesting things happening right now, both in the industry and with the

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regulators, so there all of them
are keeping us, keeping us busy.

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